10/4/11

Economics: More Competition Leads to Less Competition

The Rule of Three by Sheth and Sisodia

today’s selection is a (very old post) dated 2006, taken from this very blog …

… in which I was commenting on a book entitled “the rule of three”. I realise that this analysis is still – or maybe more than ever pertinent – and therefore I decided to revive this post, update it significantly, and submit to my readers again today.

Have you ever wondered why most markets – when they are mature enough – end up being dominated by 3 players? Sheth and Sisodia (2002 – buy it from Amazon; note that there are second hand books available from as little as £0.49!) have carried out a study about this and their book is available in electronic format too (buy an kindle version here for £9.99). 12manage.com comments that this is not applicable to Europe. On the contrary, it does apply to Europe too, or any other area for that matter, provided local markets are open to fair and unbiased competition and transparent (I know, this is a paradox, fair competition leads to less competition in the event).

For instance, if you apply this rule to the telecoms market, it is very likely that you will find that the rule applies in each country/zone of influence individually (multi-national markets). It’s not that the rule is false. It’s just that those markets are heavily regulated and therefore, keep introducing new devices to revive competition at regular intervals.

In the US, the situation is different though; a few decades ago, AT&T was broken into small companiesby the regulator, but the rule of 3 applied in the end nonetheless (Stephen Colbert described this phenomenon in a classic pitch, click the Colbert picture below to view an extract). The process of introducing more competition ended after that though, it is not the case in some European markets in which new devices are still being introduced to fuel competition and lower prices (transparency : I work for a Telco, my comment is and will remain neutral for obvious reasons)

Where globalisation has already happened (for instance in the fast food market), the rule will apply across Europe with Mc Donald’s, Quick or Burger King and the rest of the niche players for instance. Does that mean that the ultimate goal of open competition is … less competition? Eerie isn’t it?

A final comment is that not all markets, even in the high-tech sector, are truly global. Whereas the IT market is for instance (same brands, strong consolidation, same products sold from one end of the planet to the other etc.) others aren’t. Besides, a multi-national market (i.e. an addition of heavily idiosyncratic markets in many countries) isn’t really the same as a global market. In multi-national markets, many discrepancies persist, even when the brand itself is global.

Zipf’s law

Seth Godin described this phenomenon in a different way, in his famous opus entitled “unleashing the idea virus“. Here is the passage about what he calls “Zipf’s law” (the book is rather old too, but it doesn’t matter anyway, what Seth described then is still valid now).

There’s a name for this effect. It’s called Zipf’s law, after George Kingsley Zipf (1902-1950), a philologist and professor at Harvard University. He discovered that the most popular word  in the English language (“the”) is used ten times more than the tenth most popular word, 100 times more than the 100th most popular word and 1,000 times more than the 1,000th most popular word.

It’s also been discovered that this same effect applies to market share for software, soft drinks,automobiles, candy bars, and the frequency of hits on pages found on a website. The chart above shows actual visits to the different pages at Sun’s website [editor's note: in 1996] .In almost every field of endeavor, it’s clear that being #1 is a lot better than being #3 or #10.There isn’t an even distribution of rewards, especially in our networked world.On the Net, the stakes are even larger. The market capitalization of Priceline, eBay and Amazon approaches 95% of the total market capitalization of every other consumer ecommerce stock combined [editor's note: still in 1996]. Clearly, there’s a lot to be gained by winning.

09/1/11

Chinese Internet industry ready to grow beyond borders (1/2)

chinese-flag-Internet Attribution Chinese flag photo, some rights reserved by Philip Jägenstedt

imageby Alban Fournier (http://www.value2020.net) QQ ID: 1557637787

Alban Fournier is a graduate from Essec Management School in Paris. He has proficiency in Management, Change Management, Marketing and Consulting services. He has worked on various engagements with Schneider Electric and Tencent, the leading Chinese Internet company.

China will be the World’s next Internet giant!

Which Internet company generates the greatest number of micro transactions for virtual goods on a daily basis? If they were asked this question, most of our Western readers would undoubtedly mention Google, or Facebook and they would be wrong. In this piece, I will explain why China is virtually the only country that is able to compete with the United States of America with regard to the growth of its Internet industry.

China has the world’s largest Internet audience thanks to its population, the world’s biggest with more than 1.3 billion people. With the strong increase of its Gross Domestic Product, extraordinary engineering talent, plenty of venture capital, Chinese entrepreneurs and large firms have now the resources to compete worldwide.

What makes the the Chinese market stand out is that Chinese people use intensively their mobile phones. They are not just using their devices to communicate with other people : they also play games, issue payments and perform many other things online.

Overall, Asia is ahead of us with regard to the usage of mobile devices, Japan and Korea being the most advanced countries. This high and ever growing usage of mobile communications empowers local players such as China Mobile (70% of the market), China Unicom (20%) and China Telecom (10%).

[China Telecom phone booth image AttributionNoncommercialShare Alikesome rights reserved by mjaniec]

According to CNNIC[1], the total number of wireless Internet users in China reached 302.7 million at the end of 2010, representing 66.2% of the local Internet user base. Such high equipment rates were mainly driven by the superior wireless data infrastructure in the country and the availability of mobile applications such as WAP portals, Instant Messaging (IM) and social games. Secondly, while traditional Text Messaging (SMS) continued to develop after a year of strong growth in 2009, microblogging enjoyed explosive growth and emerged as a major social media contender in China.

Telecom is still a local industry in China … as of now

A characteristic of the Chinese technology industry however is that few of those Chinese companies, however successful, have decided to go beyond their own borders. There are counter examples with firms like Huawei which has now managed to become a global company and has clients in many countries, namely by providing infrastructure equipment to Western network and service providers.

And the winner is … Tencent

Getting back to the question I asked at the beginning of this post, the World’s leading Internet company in terms of the number of online transactions on a daily basis is neither Google or Facebook; it is a Chinese company and is name is Tencent. The next part of this piece will be dedicated to their success story.

… to be continued.

________________ [1] http://www.cnnic.net.cn/

10/6/10

Informa analyst describes pacified m2m market

Jamie Moss, a principal analyst at Informa telecoms and media, and columnist at telecoms.com, has this interesting story about the m2m market and the positioning of carriers within this market. Moss’s account follows Informa’s “embedded connectivity event” which took place in London in September 2010 and describes what was said during a panel including representatives from three main European carriers, amongst which Orange Business Services.

Jamie Moss’s account is a good description of the m2m market as of today, in which carriers are happy to serve the market with it underlying infrastructure, as well as get themselves organised with value added resellers and service providers, without clashing head-on with any of those; on top of that, Moss adds, carriers are also allowing themselves to deliver services to particular verticals like fleet management services (click here for a link to a press release relative to Orange Business Services’ own fleet management service solution or a link to the Fleet Advanced solution (in French only)).

One of the main characteristics of this market is basically that carriers are not positioning themselves on end to end services in that area, therefore allowing for maximum cooperation with all players in the field. Moss’s point is that there is enough money for all the actors in the chain without having to compete unduly on any other niche market. Here is Jamie Moss’s account on telecoms.com, which is interesting both from a telecoms and a pure marketing point of view, because it shows how cooperation can be implemented harmoniously in a pacified high tech market:

M2M: a partnership-driven market with enough potential for all participants

Informa’s Embedded Connectivity event this September was spearheaded by an operator panel of unprecedented influence and expertise: Eric Brenneis, the Global Head of M2M at Vodafone; Emmanuel Routier, the Director of the International M2M Centre at Orange Group; and Angel Garcia Barrio, the Head of M2M for Telefonica O2. T-Mobile’s VP of Data Solutions and M2M, Mathias Elsner, was also scheduled to be present, but was unfortunately unable to be there on the day.

The Carrier Role

Read on at Telecoms.com