Crossing the Chasm: A vision Of ICT Lyfecycles

Geoffrey Moore, one of Regis Mc Kenna’s disciples wrote a fundamental book at the beginning of the 1990’ entitled Crossing the Chasm, which provides great insight into the product or service lifecycle theory [61] . To start with, diagram #1 shows the classic view of a product lifecycle:

Figure 17 : Diagram#1 – ‘Ideal’ Lifecycle curve [62]

As pointed out by Dubois & Jolibert [63] , many variations on the theme depicted in diagram #1 exist. All these variations, in a manner of speaking, contradict this vision of an ‘ideal’ lifecycle curve, or at least they cast a very different light on the subject. I have taken two examples from Dr Rink & J.E. Swan (1967) as shown in diagrams #2 and #3 [64] .

Figure 18 : Diagram#2 – Cycle upon cycle (fashion-driven markets) [65]

Diagram #2 covers markets like the bicycle market, where lead the show [66] . In such markets, what makes sales progress is not so much the need to be able to go from point A to point B as the desire to possess a new bike (the old Raleigh ‘chopper’ of the 80’s, or All terrain bikes in the 90’s etc…). Each generation is incited to buy new generation bicycles, the novelty of which makes such new products desirable. In such markets, every fashion trend breathes life into the product lifecycle. Please note that these successive cycles may not be proportional, as shown by the research carried out by Rink & Swan [67] .

Figure 19 : Diagram#3 –Innovative mature markets [68]

As far as personal computers are concerned, I believe their product lifecycle is very close to the pattern shown in diagram #3. The PC’s market is on the verge of saturation on the residential segment. What it means is that people tend to replace their machines as late as possible. This slowly but surely becomes a renewal market (See the slide taken from Thierry Breton’s IDATE 2003 presentation per below in Figure 22).